Nikon Lifts Full-Year Profit Forecast 50% While Cutting Camera Sales Outlook

Nikon raised its full-year operating profit forecast by 50% to ¥16.5 billion on October 30, while cutting its revenue outlook by ¥10 billion — a revision the company attributes directly to weaker second-half camera and lens sales.

The new guidance, for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, replaces the August 6 forecast. The numbers are a stark split: profits up across the board, sales down because of Imaging.

• Revenue: ¥722 billion, down from ¥732 billion (-1.4%)
• Operating profit: ¥16.5 billion, up from ¥11 billion (+50%)
• Profit before tax: ¥21.5 billion, up from ¥14.5 billion (+48.3%)
• Net profit: ¥16 billion, up from ¥10 billion (+60%)
• Basic EPS: ¥48.57, up from ¥30.36

For context, the prior year produced an operating loss of ¥112.4 billion and a net loss of ¥86.1 billion. Nikon is climbing out of a hole. Just not on camera sales.

What does this change for photographers?

Not much immediately, and that's the point. The revision comes a day after Nikon announced the $14,000 Nikkor Z 120-300mm f/2.8 TC VR S — premium glass for a shrinking enthusiast and pro market. The Imaging Products Business (Nikon's segment for cameras and lenses) is the sole reason group revenue guidance went down.

Nikon's own statement is blunt: full-year revenue "is expected to fall below the previous forecast, mainly due to a revision of the sales plan for the second half in the Imaging Products Business." The company also lowered its second-half operating profit forecast, primarily on the softer Imaging outlook.

The softness isn't new. Nikon flagged weaker demand earlier in the fiscal year, particularly in China, and had already cut camera and lens unit forecasts at the Q1 stage.

Where the profit is actually coming from

The first half is the star. Nikon now expects first-half operating profit of ¥9 billion, swinging from a previously forecast loss of ¥5.5 billion — a ¥14.5 billion improvement. First-half net profit was revised from a projected ¥2.5 billion loss to a ¥10.5 billion gain, on revenue of ¥334.5 billion (down a hair from ¥336 billion).

The drivers sit well outside photography:

• Precision Equipment: higher-than-expected service revenue in semiconductor lithography and maintenance, on favorable chip-market conditions
• Healthcare and Industry segments: upgraded full-year profit outlooks on strong first-half results
• U.S. tariff refunds: a one-off that flatters the bottom line
• Cost containment: lower SG&A, plus the deferral of certain expenditures into later periods

Nikon's statement sums it up: operating profit "is expected to exceed the previous forecast, driven by higher-than-expected service revenue in the Precision Equipment Business amid favorable semiconductor market conditions, tariff refunds in the United States, and lower selling, general and administrative expenses due to cost containment and the deferral of certain expenditures."

Read that carefully. Some of this profit is deferred cost, not earned margin.

The fine print

Currency assumptions are unchanged from Q3 onward: 1 USD = ¥155 and 1 EUR = ¥180. A weaker yen at actual rates would help Imaging's export economics, though Nikon isn't banking on it.

The structural read for working pros: Nikon's corporate turnaround now leans on semiconductor tooling and healthcare, not on Z-series bodies and lenses. Cameras still matter, but as a segment requiring forecast cuts twice in one fiscal year. Expect continued product strategy tilted toward high-margin flagship glass like the 120-300mm f/2.8 — fewer, pricier SKUs for a professional buyer base — rather than volume plays.

The next checkpoint is Q2 results and any revision to Imaging's unit forecasts, which will show whether the second-half sales-plan cut reflects China weakness alone or broader demand fatigue.